Quarterly Report: October 2025

Markets are priced for perfection, yet our base case remains constructive. Disinflation is advancing without a collapse in demand; central banks are shifting from restraint to support; and earnings—especially in innovation-linked sectors—continue to surprise on the upside. The secular build-out in AI and digital infrastructure is broadening across supply chains and regions, providing a multi-year tailwind that keeps investors engaged.

At the same time, high expectations narrow the margin for error. Elevated public debt, demanding valuations, shifting trade and industrial policies, and episodic liquidity strains are background risks. The question is not whether these exist, but when they might become market-moving inflection points, for example through a policy surprise, growth disappointment, or geopolitical escalation. These are not our base case, but we monitor these potential tipping points closely.

Positioning in this environment means participation with discipline—invest, diversify, and hedge through quality. We stay invested, tilt to strong balance sheets and cash-flow visibility and maintain global diversification. We pair growth exposure with protective buffers—hedges, liquidity, and selected safe-haven assets—and favor incremental adjustments over binary calls. Resilience and fragility now coexist; portfolios should be prepared for both without abandoning the opportunity set.

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